Economic

Scenario

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The last decade has been marked by a series of broadly felt economic crises and negative shocks, starting with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, followed by the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010–2012 and the global commodity price realignments of 2014–2016. Now, global economic growth is expected to edge up from 2.4% in 2016 and 3.3% in 2017 to 3.4% in 2018 and 2019, its fastest pace since 2010. Over the long course, GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.9% annually until 2037.

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GDP performance has been unevenly distributed across countries. Much uncertainty faces the world economy in the coming years. Political instability, populism, terrorism and banking sector fragilities all present significant headwinds. However, the fundamentals remain in place to support accelerating growth.

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The US economy will benefit from an improving tax and regulatory climate and strengthening business investment. Eurozone growth will hold above 2% in 2018, but UK growth will cool as Brexit-related uncertainty delays investment over the course of the next few years.

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Asia’s other emerging markets will sustain robust growth. In China, particularly, growth will gradually slow as the government aims to reduce excesses in industrial capacity, debt, housing, and shadow banking. China’s private consumption, however, is projected to grow above 7% over the next years. Russia and Brazil will continue to recover from 2015–16 recessions.

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